A Pitt-iful Case

Mark Harrington: It must be the football off-season -- the weather is warm and the Pitt-Penn State series debate has reared its ugly head ... again. Since I addressed this topic over a year ago -- back in February 2006 when I wrote Pitt Series No Help for PSU -- nothing has changed.


Blame Joe Paterno for sparking the debate once again since he actually elected to respond to the question of renewing the series at a recent press function near Pittsburgh, saying, "I personally would like to have a home-and-home series with Pitt, but I don't think it's realistic right now."

Predictably, a western Pennsylvania columnist tackled the topic, putting his beatdown on a horse that died decades ago. Mike Kovak of the Washington Observer-Reporter got straight to the point with a riveting headline of "Blame Paterno for Penn State not playing Pitt." The link of the article says “joepa_dumb_dumb,” a classic nod to journalistic integrity.

At least the link title was original. As for the column itself, I liked it better when Beano Cook wrote it in 1987 and then Ron Cook revised it in 1993.

Let's review some of the finer points of Kovak's case:

"Even with Pitt's rebuilding process slowly moving, the Panthers are a more attractive program than Syracuse and, possibly, Virginia."

OK, let's review New Year's Day Bowl appearances, wins and losing seasons since 1982 (last 25 years), for these teams he listed:

Syracuse

NYD Bowl Appearances: 6
NYD Bowl Victories: 4
Losing Seasons: 5

Virginia

NYD Bowl Appearances: 3
NYD Bowl Victories: 0
Losing Seasons: 4

Now, let's compare this to Pitt:

Pitt

NYD Bowl Appearances: 3
NYD Bowl Victories: 0
Losing Seasons: 10

Now, I was no math major, but Syracuse looks a heck of a lot better and Virginia is on par with half as many losing seasons as Pitt last 25 years. I'd be interested in seeing the basis of Kovak's claim on this one.

I suspect his claim is based on the past one or two seasons, where Pitt has gone 11-12, since he says:

"Heck, take away Penn State's 11-1 season in 2005 and there hasn't been much difference between the two programs. Penn State isn't as strong, a fact Paterno has not realized."

Yup, and if we take away Pitt's 1981 Sugar Bowl win, it's been 31 years since they have seen a NYD Bowl victory. Take away Dave Wannstedt’s two D-IAA wins over the last two seasons at Pitt and his win percentage drops down to 43 percent. Boy, this is quite a fun game.

I'd be interested in knowing the basis by which Kovak makes the statement "there hasn't been much difference between the two programs." Let's look at 2006? PSU had "only" 50 percent more wins and a NYD bowl victory against a Top-25 opponent. OK, how about the last 25 years? Let's run the same comparison we did for Syracuse and Virginia -- here are Pitt's numbers since 1982 again:

Pitt

NYD Bowl Appearances: 3
NYD Bowl Victories: 0
Losing Seasons: 10

And here are Penn State's:

Penn State

NYD Bowl Appearances: 15
NYD Bowl Victories: 10
Losing Seasons: 5

So PSU has half as many losing seasons, 10 more NYD bowl victories and five times more NYD bowl appearances in that stretch. Speaking of "stretch"...sounds like a good description of his case.

What’s more, Penn State has won seven of the last eight games in the series and Paterno has an all-time record of 23-7-1 against the Panthers.

Kovak also gives the reason why this is so important to he and other Pitt fans:

"For one, the Panthers' 2007 home schedule is a joke. The fan base is lethargic and dwindling. A road game at Penn State would spark interest. The Nittany Lions at Heinz Field, whether it's once in three years or four times in nine, would be sold out. National television would be there."

Kudos to him for honesty. But assuming the nation would care about this game is yet another stretch. Of the last four games between the two teams, only one (1998) was a national telecast by a non-cable network.

The fact of the matter is, Penn State has nothing tangible to gain by playing Pitt every year. That is why you rarely hear anyone east of Altoona (or west of the Ohio state line) ever complaining about this topic.

But rather than repackage what I wrote on this topic last year, perhaps we should just revisit it verbtim.

Back then I said, "So I fail to see the clear benefit to PSU from renewing the series. Sure PSU can drive a sellout for Pitt and help ‘boost Pitt’s season-ticket sales,’ especially with its tactic of requiring Nittany Lion fans to purchase multiple game tickets to gain access to the PSU game. But why should Penn State penalize its own fans with this? Again, all the benefits seem to suit Pitt well, but do zero for PSU."

That’s my stance and I’m sticking to it. By my reckoning, it is only a matter of time until I break it out again.

And Coach Paterno, next time someone asks you about the series, simply lay a "no comment" on them and save us all from having to read this article all over again, thanks.

Long "Line" of Losses

Mark Harrington: Wednesday night FightOnState.com revealed that Penn State guard Elijah Robinson's football career was over due to a "tight spinal canal." With any kind of impact to the head, the condition could lead to a pinching of the spinal cord, leading to paralysis.

While certainly a disappointing development, the fact that it was caught before Robinson sustained a serious injury should bring an element of relief to Nittany Lion fans, many of whom have the image of Adam Taliaferro -- lying paralyzed on the field at Ohio State -- burned in their collective memories.

On the other hand, Robinson hanging up his cleats plots another point in the trend of Penn State prematurely losing offensive linemen for a variety of reasons. Looking at the Classes of 2002-06, Penn State had 23 players who ended up on the offensive line. Of those, 11 have had premature departures from the program -- 48 percent of those players.

Among those players departing early were:

Chris Auletta: Gave up final year of eligibility
Brian Borgoyn: Neck injury
Joel Holler: Transfer to Delaware
Dan Mazan: Transfer to Rutgers
Greg Harrison: Foot injury
Lee Lispi: Currently at Wilkes-Barre PSU campus
Wyatt Bowman: Knee injury
Elijah Robinson: Spinal condition
Trent Varva: Quit team
Matt Lowry: Mystery; still enrolled at PSU
Antonio Logan-El: Transfer to Towson

That is quite a list when you think back to the expectations surrounding many of those players out of high school. It's also quite a run of bad luck.

But is it really bad luck or something else? It's natural to try to pinpoint a simple answer -- like recruiting (i.e. the ability to evaluate talent) or the strength and conditioning program. However, many of these players had the likes of Florida, Oklahoma, Ohio State, Miami and Michigan in pursuit of their commitments. Aside from which, it's tough to predict would-be career-ending injuries or conditions.

In terms of the strength program, it seems difficult to hold it responsible for this pattern given the varying nature of the departures over recent years.

No matter how you view it, this has been rough run. But looking at Elijah Robinson, the most recent departure, at least he will have the ability to walk away from the sport -- literally.

NFL Shanks on Kapinos

Mark Harrington: More often than not the NFL on the whole has a good eye for talent, but sometimes they simply shank an opportunity. Such is the case with Penn State kicker Jeremy Kapinos.

One of three finalists for the Ray Guy Award honoring the best punter in the nation, Kapinos was a four-year starter, and is Penn State's career leader in punts (247) and punting yardage (10,326). His 41.8 career average is tied for second at Penn State and he owns four of the top seven game averages in school history.

When you compare the 2006 national net punt rankings for Kapinos against some of the punters with NFL combine invitations, here is how they stack up:

Baylor: 3rd

Auburn: 4th

Pitt: 16th

Syracuse: 21st

Michigan State: 23rd

Penn State: 37th

Virginia Tech: 45th

Maryland: 47th

You can crunch numbers all you like, but at the end of the day, Kapinos punted 61 times. Only 24 for those were returned for a total of 107 yards. So he gave up 1.75 return yard per kick, an amazing figure! Aside from this he had more than twice as many punts downed inside the 20 (21) as touchbacks (10).

So when you look at his numbers and consider he was a finalist for the nation's top punting honor it's simple - he deserved a shot at the combine.

Reverse Psychology

Mark Harrington: Ahhh, recruiting — the good old act of prognosticating the decision process of a 17-year-old. By now you have probably heard, if not immersed yourself, in the Broderick Green situation — the Arkansas running back who was seemingly torn between Penn State and Southern Cal, the school he was originally pledged to and ultimately stuck with.

As painful as it can be for diehard fans, this is a recurring theme in recruting. Let's review a few names of recent history who had recruiting paths similar to Green:

Dan Kendra: QB who pledged to Penn State only to ultimately become a Florida State Seminole.

Chris Simms: QB who reportedly told PSU he was becoming a Lion, only to switch to Tennessee and then to Texas.

Kevin Jones: RB who many Lion fans expected to be in Blue and White, only to see him end up as a Hokie.

Chad Henne: QB who allegedly told Paterno he was coming to Happy Valley only to end up at Michigan.

Vidal Hazelton: WR who was tornbetween USC and PSU only to end up a Trojan after a bit of lingering post-LOI day drama.

However, before you start to think that PSU is always the "bridesmaid" in these situations, consider these recent PSU pledges:

Anthony Morelli: QB originally committed to Pitt, Morelli was a signing day suprise for Penn State and is the current starting QB.

Pat Devlin: QB originally pledged to Miami who reversed field and pledged to PSU.

Antonio Logan-El: OL who was committed to Maryland who created a stir for the Terps when he switched to the Lions.

Bani Gbadyu: LB who was headed to LSU, but decided the Nittany Lions were a better fit.

Donnie Johnson: RB who was committed to Illinois only to shift to PSU and eventually become a starting safety.

This even happened in the Class of 2007 when Drew Astorino, the All-State, Big 33 DB, backed out of his Kent State pledge to join Penn State.

So, sure PSU has had some rough situations with some of these commitment shifts. But the Lions have also had some major benefits from them. It's part of recruiting and part of prognosticating the decision-making process of 17-year-olds.

A-Notre Disappointment

Mark Harrington: 1993, a good year for most Penn State fans - a 10-2 record, another Tennessee bowl win and the prelude to a magical season. It was also the last regular season Notre Dame capped off with a bowl victory, squeaking by Texas A&M 24-21 in the Cotton Bowl. It's been 13 years and nine bowl losses since that victory, thanks to the 41-14 Sugar Bowl loss to LSU on Wednesday.

Over the years there has been talk and speculation of "special treatment" for Notre Dame in bowl games, after all the BCS rules have the "Irish Clause" which states Notre Dame will receive an automatic BCS bid if they place in the top 8 in the BCS poll and will be considered for a bid if they finish in the top 12. Notre Dame also now receives $4.5 million for playing in a BCS game and $1 million when they don't (previously they received $14 million for an appearance and no payout if they missed a bid).

Most of the "special treatment" talk has focused on Notre Dame being "boosted up" to bigger bowls they don't necessarily deserve, seemingly due to their large draw of fans who seem to have deep passions one way or the other towards the Fighting Irish.

Do I personally think Notre Dame gets "preferential treatment"? Sure, on some level, after all college football and the BCS are about money first and foremost. However, while that treatment would seem to help them on the front-end of a bowl (with increased revenue, TV exposure, etc.), it also seems to do the South Bend team a major disservice on the back-end of a bowl (with tougher match-ups, consistent losses many and even a series of blowouts).

Here are Notre Dame's bowl losses over the past 13 seasons:

2007 Sugar: to LSU, 41-14
2006 Fiesta: to Ohio State, 34-20
2004 Insight: to Oregon State, 38-21
2003 Gator: to NC State 28-6
2001 Fiesta: to Oregon State, 41-9
1999 Gator: to Georgia Tech, 35-28
1997 Independence: to LSU, 27-9
1996 Orange: to Florida State, 31-26
1995 Fiesta: to Colorado, 41-24

In those nine bowl games Notre Dame has been outscored 316-157 - a two to one margin. The average margin of victory in these bowl games has bee 17.7 points per game, with only two of those games ending up with a single-digit margin of victory - 1999 Gator Bowl and 1996 Fiesta Bowl.

So, although many fans may believe Notre Dame is getting "preferential treatment" when it comes to bowl bids, it would seem that the Fighting Irish are being done a disservice, having to consistently match up with better teams, resulting in double-digit losses and more often than not blowouts.

The Big Ten Bowl Bargain

Mark Harrington: Watching the bowls this week I started thinking about the Big Ten's "post season" performances over the past several years, curious to look at how the conference has fared since Penn State joined league play 14 years ago.

Penn State has been a consistent bowl victor under Paterno, winning 22 of 33 bowl appearances (67%) during his tenure. Here are the total number of bowls each team has participated in over the last 14 years with the second number being their total post-New Year bowl appearances in that span. The number in parenthesis is the percentage of total bowls over the last 14 years that were played on January 1 or later.

Michigan: 14/11 (78%)
Ohio State: 13/11 (84%)
Wisconsin: 12/8 (67%)
Iowa: 10/4 (40%)
Penn State: 10/9 (90%)
Purdue: 9/3 (33%)
Michigan State: 7/1 (14%)
Minnesota: 7/0 (0%)
Northwestern: 5/2 (40%)
Illinois: 3/1 (33%)
Indiana: 1 (0)

Here is a breakdown of bowl winning percentage for Big Ten teams over that same 14 year span.

Penn State: 8-2 (80%)
Wisconsin: 9-3 (75%)
Illinois: 2-1 (67%)
Ohio State: 7-5 (58%)
Iowa: 5-5 (50%)
Michigan: 7-7 (50%)
Minnesota: 3-4 (43%)
Purdue: 3-6 (33%)
Michigan State: 2-5 (29%)
Indiana: 0-1 (0%)
Northwestern: 0-5 (0%)

As an aside, Ohio State has yet to play their 2007 bowl game for the National Title, but regardless of a win or loss their position in these rankings would remain the same, with a winning percentage of 61 with a victory and 54 with a loss.

So, over Penn State's first 14 years, the entire Big Ten is 46-44 (51%). The top teams by total bowl appearances in that span are 1. Michigan 2. Ohio State 3. Wisconsin 4. Iowa/Penn State. The top teams by percentage of post-New Year bowls are 1. Penn State 2. Ohio State 3. Michigan 4. Wisconsin. The top teams by overall bowl winning percentage are 1. Penn State 2. Wisconsin 3. Illinois 4. Ohio State.

What does it tell us? It appears that you have teams have been consistently dependable when it comes to making bowl games, like Michigan, Ohio State and Wisconsin. And you have teams that are consistently dependable when it comes to winning bowl games, like Penn State and Wisconsin. So it would seem Wisconsin is on the top of the heap in upholding their Big Ten end of the bowl bargain.

Dancing With the Stars

Mark Harrington: Who knew stars could create so much madness for so many football fans across the nation? But they do every year, with countless fans nationwide obsessing over "one more star" for that sleeper prospect. Given that prognosticating the collegiate success of high school players is a little less challenging than prediciting the next earthquake, it is perhaps poetically fitting that the sole sport which heavily bases its national champion on the subjectivity of those who barely watch the games embraces the star system so tightly.

In all fairness though, it is a very difficult thing to predict the future career of a 17-year-old, let alone hundreds of them, so under the circumstances the star system is likely close to an "ideal" approach. However, the way the teams are ranked by recruiting services, like Scout.com and others, has a lot to be desired.

Currently, the status quo for the comparative ranking is an absolute score based on the sheer number of recruits multiplied by the star value each recruit has earned by the service. While theoretically this works, it clearly penalizes teams with a limited number of scholarships to hand out, which is often simply a matter of circumstance.

So a program could have 10 five-star recruits and yet be ranked evenly with a program that has 25 two-star recruits.

The rankings, in order to be fair, should be based on the average number of stars per recruit. Now, you could have a team that gets one five-star recruit and is ranked No. 1, which would not make sense. But getting around that problem is simple enough: just require teams to achieve a minimum number of commitments before they can be ranked, say 10.

Under Scout's current rankings system the top 10 recruit classes are:

1. Texas
2. Florida
3. Georgia
4. Georgia Tech
5. Virginia Tech
6. Michigan
7. USC
8. Auburn
9. Notre Dame
10. Tennessee

Under the system I am proposing, the rankings shift to:

1. USC
2. UCLA
3. Texas
4. Notre Dame
5. Miami (Fl)
6. Florida
7. Michigan
8. Ohio State
9. Georgia
10. Penn State

I am sure the conspiracy theory about this will be that it moves up Penn State's ranking from 18 to 10, but I assure you I am looking for a system of equity rather than one that rewards programs simply because they have more scholarships to hand out.

Then again, little else with college football seems to have impartiality, so perhaps the system is designed to fit in.

A "Once in a Generation" Player

Mark Harrington: Every season in college football we hear about those "once in a decade" type players - you know them, the all-out stars who are sure to have impressive careers at the next level. These are players who are just great athletes and have careers that become marquee milestones of their programs. Penn State, like many other schools, have a long, rich tradition of these types of players. The ones who fans brag about having seen in person. Any Nittany Lion fan can probably rattle off 30 of these off the top of their head at any time.

However, there is another type of player - one which is a greater rarity - a "once in a generation" player who not only excels on the field like those "once in a decade" type guys, earning a slew of honors, but there is something more to these players. These players exude character, class and dedication in all aspects of his life - on a national level. These players are not only rare for individual programs, but for college football in general.

Penn State has had a slew of great players who achieve this on some level, recently guys like Tamba Hali and Michael Robinson come to mind. However, personally, I view Paul Posluszny as one of these rare "once in a generation" players - a indiviudal who's on-field achievements are set in the record books, but perhaps more importantly, he's an individual who is known for his class, humility, dedication and passion in nearly every aspect of his life.

Recently named as ESPN Magazine's Academic All-American of the Year, Posluszny has even talked of a desire to join the Navy someday simply because it "seems like the right thing to do."

For me, Posluszny enters this class of player with John Cappelletti - a player who's legend has spanned college football. These two multi-dimensional players not only brim with football success, but exude class, honor and passion - and are nationally recognized for it.

Penn State, and frankly college football, are incredibly fortunate to have players like this leave their mark on and off the field.

Bo and Joe

Mark Harrington: It almost seems sacrilegious, or at least ironic, that famed Michigan coach Bo Schembechler was a product of Ohio State. A graduate assistant for the Buckeyes under famed OSU coach Woody Hayes in the early 1950s, Schembechler returned to the Buckeyes be an assistant to Hayes for five seasons before becoming the Wolverine coach from 1969-1989.

What may be even more ironic is that Joe Paterno was offered the Michigan head job in 1968 after his first of five undefeated seasons at Penn State. As the story goes Paterno told Don Canham, who in 1968 had begun his 20-year run as Michigan's athletic director, "The only place I would think about leaving Penn State for on the college level might be Michigan."

Obviously the draw up North wasn't enough, but Paterno recommended Miami of Ohio's coach Bo Schembechler who had an impressive 40-17-3 record. The rest, as they say, is history - a point where two legendary careers started.

Obviously Paterno thought pretty highly of Schembechler back then, a respect that continues today. Speaking on his friends passing today, Paterno said, "He was the kind of guy you would want to be your friend. You always knew where you stood with him. I looked forward to seeing him at the Big Ten meetings. I respected him and enjoyed being around him.

"He was a super coach and I'm not sure he has gotten his due as far as being one of the truly great football coaches of all-time. I'm going to miss him."

Although the two coaches never met on the field it seems fitting that they developed a bond off of it and impacted each other so deeply. On behalf of the Nittany Nation we extend our thoughts and condolences to the Schembechler family and the Wolverine Nation.

Penn State Needs a Plan

Mark Harrrington: It is a difficult point for Penn State football currently. With four defeats to teams with a combined loss record of two, many fans within the Nittany Nation are disappointed if not flat out angry with the team's production this year. Add on the fact that Joe Paterno is sidelined, recovering from a serious leg injury, and the Nittany Lions are missing an important element, if not a tradition, of their team.

However, I believe things are about to get a lot worse for Penn State if the Nittany Lions do not act quickly. For years, Penn State has fought, often successfully, the stigma that Joe Paterno's tenure at PSU was limited. And for years Paterno has outlasted 700-plus coaching changes, an average of over six per Division IA school. Yet, as Penn State enters the closing period for the Class of 2007, Paterno's mortality has taken a front row seat at no fault of his own. If prospects were not questioning how the spry 79 year old was going to keep going through their college careers prior to last Saturday, they surely have to have the thought crossing their minds now.

Paterno's situation creates nothing but doubt as to his longevity. For this reason it is essential to the team's recruiting and the future of the program to layout a succession plan, even if it is only temporary. Even if Paterno has the ability and ends up opting to coach for years after he is recovered, the university has the responsibility to quell the doubts in minds of prospects and commitments by conveying a plan of stability for the program.

Otherwise, programs are sure to leverage Paterno's situation against Penn State in the closing months up to letter-of-intent day, which could very well draw the wind out of PSU's proverbial recruiting sails. It is the least Penn State can do for the sake of the program's future talent levels.